DemDaily: The Demographic Download and Divide

November 6, 2016
Just days away from the presidential, all efforts are on turning out each party's demographic "base vote."
Profiles of the two parties' core constituencies reflect the increasing divide between the composition of each - particularly among race, ethnicity and religious affiliation.
The Democratic Party is becoming more racially diverse, less religious and better-educated while aging at a slower rate. By contrast Republican voters are going in the opposite direction - becoming less diverse, and less educated while aging at a quicker rate than the rest of the country.
 
History of Demographic Performance in Presidential Elections
Demographic Group
2012
2008
2004
2000
1996
Men Obama: 45%
Romney: 52%
Obama: 49%
McCain: 48%
Kerry: 44%
Bush: 55%
Gore: 43%
Bush: 54%
Clinton: 44%
Dole: 45%
Women Obama: 55%
Romney: 44%
Obama: 56%
McCain: 43%
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 48%
Gore: 54%
Bush: 44%
Clinton: 55%
Dole: 38%
White Obama: 39%
Romney: 59%
Obama: 43%
McCain: 55%
Kerry: 41%
Bush: 58%
Gore: 42%
Bush: 55%
Clinton: 44%
Dole: 46%
African-American Obama: 93%
Romney: 6%
Obama: 95%
McCain: 4%
Kerry: 88%
Bush: 11%
Gore: 90%
Bush: 9%
Clinton: 84%
Dole: 12%
Hispanic/Latino Obama: 71%
Romney: 27%
Obama: 67%
McCain: 31%
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 44%
Gore: 62%
Bush: 35%
Clinton: 73%
Dole: 21%
Asian Obama: 73%
Romney: 26%
Obama: 62%
McCain: 35%
Kerry: 56%
Bush: 43%
Gore: 55%
Bush: 41%
Clinton: 44%
Dole: 48%
18-29 Obama: 60%
Romney: 37%
Obama: 66%
McCain: 32%
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 45%
Gore: 48%
Bush: 47%
Clinton: 55%
Dole: 36%
30-44 Obama: 52%
Romney: 45%
Obama: 52%
McCain: 46%
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 53%
Gore: 48%
Bush: 50%
Clinton: 50%
Dole: 41%
45-64 Obama: 47%
Romney: 51%
Obama: 50%
McCain: 49%
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 52%
Gore: 50%
Bush: 48%
Clinton: 47%
Dole: 45%
65+ Obama: 44%
Romney: 56%
Obama: 45%
McCain: 53%
Kerry:47%
Bush: 52%
Gore: 51%
Bush: 47%
Clinton: 50%
Dole: 44%
High School Graduate Obama: 51%
Romney: 48%
Obama: 52%
McCain: 46%
Kerry: 47%
Bush: 52%
Gore: 48%
Bush: 49%
Clinton: 51%
Dole: 35%
College Graduate Obama: 47%
Romney: 51%
Obama: 50%
McCain: 48%
Kerry: 46%
Bush: 54%
Gore: 45%
Bush: 51%
Clinton: 44%
Dole: 46%
Post Graduate Obama: 55%
Romney: 42%
Obama: 58%
McCain: 40%
Kerry: 55%
Bush: 44%
Gore: 52%
Bush: 44%
Clinton: 52%
Dole: 40%
All this bodes well for Democrats, whose key constituencies are turning out in larger numbers among early voters.
Early voting is up across the board, with more than 40 million votes already cast compared to 32 million at this point in the 2012 cycle - which is good news for Democrats, who historically participate in absentee and early vote in higher percentages.
126 million Americans voted in the 2012 presidential, a decrease from the 131 million who voted in Obama's historic 2008 win. If a projected 130-140 million go to the polls, then approximately 30% of 2016 votes have already been cast
Demographically, Latinos are leading the race to the polls, with huge surges in Florida and Nevada - crucial battleground states for Clinton. In Florida, whose 29 electoral votes are critical to winning the presidency, Democrats have a narrow edge among the 5.7+ million early votes cast.
In Nevada, Democrats are voting early in record-breaking numbers, surpassing 2012 and 2008 turnout for Obama.
Other good news - college educated women are voting in higher numbers and Democrats may win the vote among white womenfor the first time, a demographic previously dominated by the GOP.
The African American early vote, however, is down in key states like North Carolina, which is showing a 6% decrease from 2012. Turnout is also down among young voters (18-29), who were a force in the primary, but a vocal voice of disillusionment in the historically divisive general.
Go to DemList's Election Protection Connection for voter information and volunteer opportunities in your state, and send us your links for posting!
DemList
Connecting you to The Party
Connecting you to Each Other
Kimberly Scott
Publisher

Related posts