DemDaily: Early Vote By The Numbers!

October 29, 2018

Image: The Brownsville Herald

The 2018 midterms are expected to break voting records across the board and early vote numbers are no exception, with over 19 million people having voted as of this morning.

Not surprisingly, early vote numbers are high in states like Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Tennessee and Texas where hotly contested races are on the ballot.

How It Works
Early voting projections are derived from records of state and local election records of who has voted so far, but can be deceiving as they do not actually reflect how a person voted.
Historically mail-in votes, which are the first to be counted, tend to favor Republicans, while in-person early votes tend to favor Democrats.
Early voting is generally done by in-person or by mail and works differently in each state, with periods between four and fifty days prior to Election Day. Early voting in person is allowed without excuse in 33 states and D.C., and absentee voting by mail without excuse is allowed in 27 states and DC. In 20 states, an excuse is required.

Pic: Charlotte Kesl/NYT

By The Numbers
Our breakdown is based on figures provided by the United States Elections Project and DemList's calculations based on party modeling results by TargetSmart and/or individual state sources.
In all cases, numbers are based on projections of party breakdown,  not actual votes. Where indicated *a percentage of voters could not be identified by party affiliation, leaving room for a sometimes significant number of undetermined votes in the equation.
Our point is to provide our readers a snapshot of where things stand, and to remind all of the importance of voting as we head into the last nine days leading up to the election!
State-by-State Early Vote and Absentee Voting Numbers
State Democrat % Republican % Other Candidate *Not ID'd by Affiliation % As of Date % of 2014 Early Vote
Alaska 28.83% 57.54% 13.6% 10/27 -
Arizona 32% 43% 5% 10/26 72.1%
Arkansas 33% 44% 23% 10/26 26%
California 42.9% 34.1% 1%  10/26 38.8%
Colorado 35% 35.4% 1.1% 10/29 29.8%
Florida 40.1% 42.2% 6% 10/29 85.5%
Georgia 43.4% 51.5% 5% 10/27 108.8%
Idaho 20% 50.8% 5% 10/25 64.3%
Illinois 54.6% 31.3% 15% 10/26 65.4%
Indiana 55.8% 34.8% 9% 10/24 127.9%
Iowa 44.5% 36.8% 5% 10/26 61.2%
Kansas 37.1% 48.4% 5% 10/29 67.6%
Louisiana 44.9% 40.2% - 10/29 87.6%
Maine 45.1% 29.5% 2.5% 10/25 52.2%
Maryland  63% 25.1% - 10/28 88.4%
Massachusetts 65.1% 25.6% 9% 10/26
Michigan 32.8% 50.3% 16% 10/24 60.3%
Minnesota  41.2% 35% 24% 10/25 106%
Montana 28.9% 46.7% 24% 10/27 87.6%
Nebraska 39.1% 45.8% 4% 10/25 64.3%
Nevada 41.9% 38.9% - 10/28 122.5%
New Jersey 55.7% 37% 7% 10/26
New Mexico 53.7% 34% 6% 10/27 93.5%
North Carolina 42.9% 30.2% 3% 10/29 97.1%
North Dakota 18% 69% 12% 10/28 67.4%
Ohio 38.5% 39.7% 11.8% 10/28
Oklahoma 40.1% 51.8% 0.3% 10/29 47.4%
Oregon 45.6% 32.1% 6.6% 10/26 23.9%
South Dakota 32.1% 62.3% 5% 10/1
Tennessee 28.6% 64.7% 7% 10/27 152.5%
Texas 38.6% 53.7% 7% 10/28 144.3%
Utah 30% 52% 18% 10/25
Vermont 64.5% 25.8% 9.6% 10/12 30.9%
Virginia 49.25% 40% 11.75% 10/27
Washington 53.8% 37.2% 9% 10/26 27.5%
West Virginia 44.5% 37.3% 0.3% 10/29 68%
Wisconsin 42.2% 36.8% 20% 10/29 79.4%
Wyoming 72.5% 24.5% 3% 10/25 81.3%
States excluded from this chart include Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and South Carolina, where they do not have early voting, or absentee or ballot return numbers are not available.
Related
(Voter Registation Deadlines) 9/25/18
DemList
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Kimberly Scott
Publisher
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Sources:  NewYorkTimes, US Elections Project

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