DemDaily: The Bounce and the Backlash
Presidential candidates typically experience a "bounce" in their polling numbers following their parties' respective national conventions.
President Obama received an approximate 3pt bounce in 2008 and 2012, Gore 10pts in 2000 and Bill Clinton's historic 20+ point bounce in 1992.
While these numbers often even out as the debates approach (first debate is scheduled for Monday, Sept 26th), most pundits do not bank on an accurate reading until two weeks after the conventions, and any political operative will tell you not to count on anything until after Labor Day (Sept 5)
Going into the July 18-21 Republican convention Trump was down 5 to 7 points in most national polls.
The Republican Convention drew an average daily audience of 23.74 million viewers, the Democratic Convention an average of 25.51 million.
While Trump received a 6-7 point convention bump and drew even with HRC in the polls following Cleveland, Secretary Clinton extended a five-point lead after her acceptance speech, and never looked back. By the end of the week the "bump" was up to 10%, although most would attribute the backlash to her general election opponent's erratic behavior since Philly.
Although both candidates received this traditional bounce, only one appears to be sticking.
|August 1||Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson vs. Stein||Clinton 45, Trump 37, Johnson 9, Stein 5||Clinton +8|
|August 3||Clinton vs. Trump||Clinton 49, Trump 39||
|August 4||Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson vs. Stein||Clinton 43, Trump 34, Johnson 10, Stein 5||
|August 7||Clinton vs. Trump||Clinton 50, Trump 42||
|August 8||Clinton vs. Trump vs. Johnson vs. Stein||Clinton 50, Trump 37, Johnson 7, Stein 2||
|August 9||Clinton vs. Trump||Clinton 51, Trump 41||
*The Monmouth poll is the first to show Clinton w/over 50% of the popular vote in a four-horse race. Monmouth rates an A+ rating from FiveThirtyEight's pollster rating system.
Other trusted polls this week showed Clinton with double digit leads in the swing states of Pennsylvania,Michigan, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Clinton also holds smaller, single digit leads in the ever-important Southern swing states of Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. Western swing states Arizona and Nevadahave produced polling results within the margin for either candidate to be in the lead.