DemDaily: House Races and Ratings: Democrats

October 24, 2018

Now less than two weeks out from the midterms, expectation of a blue wave are undiminished, but at least ten Democratic seats are still in play.

The latest Rasmussen Report, out today, shows that 47% of likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate, compared to 44% who would opt for the Republican. 3% preferred some other candidate, and 6% were undecided.

The October 14-18th poll portrays the narrowest point spread yet in a generic Congressional Ballot, compared to RealClearPolitics' average of ten major polls conducted between October 1-17, showing Dems with a 7.7% lead.

The Numbers
*  Democrats hold 193 seats to Republicans 236, with six vacancies in the US House.
*  Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to take control of the US House in 2018.

*  Democrats have 21 open seats, Republicans have 38 open seats.
*  DemList counts 68 Republican Congressional seats that are considered truly vulnerable,
from Lean Republican (22) and Toss Up (29) to Lean Democrat (13), and Likely Democrat (4).

DemList counts ten vulnerable Democratic Congressional seats. Click on the state to link to the candidate's site and support!

REPUBLICANS' TOP DEMOCRATIC CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT TARGETS
Key: Likely Republican (2) Democratic Toss Up (1), Lean Democrat (3), Likely Democrat (4) *=Incumbent

State/Rating
District
*Incumbent and 2018 Democratic Candidate
2018 Republican Candidate Clinton (D) 2016
Trump (R) 2016
02 *Tom O'Halleran Wendy Rogers Trump +1.1
07 *Stephanie Murphy Mike Miller Clinton +7.3
01 (Open/*Tim Walz, running for Governor)
Dan Feehan
Jim Hagedorn Trump +14.9
07 *Collin Peterson Dave Hughes Trump +30.8
08 (Open/*Rick Nolan, ran for Lt. Governor, defeated in primary)
Joe Radinovich
Pete Stauber Trump +15.6
01 (Open/*Carol Shea-Porter, retiring)
Chris Pappas
Eddie Edwards Trump +2.2
03 (Open/*Jacky Rosen, running for US Senate)
Susie Lee
Danny Tarkanian Trump +1
04 (Open/*Ruben Kihuen, retiring)
Steven Horsford
Cresent Hardy Clinton +4.9
08 *Matt Cartwright (previously in old 17th CD) John Chrin Trump +9.6
14 (Open/*Conor Lamb, running in new 17th CD) 
Bibiana Boerio
Guy Reschenthaler Trump +29
Note: Chart reflects the new Pennsylvania Congressional Districts (per SCOTUS February ruling) and *incumbent who previously represented the majority of that geographic area.

Related
DemList: House Races and Ratings: Republicans 10/23/18

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Kimberly Scott
Publisher

DemList is a daily political column dedicated to informing and connecting you
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Sources: Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, DailyKos, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, RealClearPolitics

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