DemDaily: House Ratings and Ratings: The Republicans

October 23, 2018

Two weeks out from the midterms, the surge in Republican enthusiasm following the Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination battle has tempered some projections on the Democratic takeover of the US House.

Our analysis, and the numbers, however, show otherwise.

Based on an October 14-17 NBC News/Wall Street Journalpoll, Democrats hold a 9-point lead over Republicans among likely voters.

Make no mistake, the blue wave is still coming.

 

DEMOCRATS' TOP REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT TARGETS

Ratings based on a review of CookPoliticalReport, FiveThirtyEight, Sabato'sCrystalBall & DemList's final call.
Key: Lean Republican (22) and Republican Toss Up (29), Lean Democrat (13), Likely Democrat (4). In open seats, the outgoing incumbent is noted in parentheses.

State/Rating
District
(Incumbent) and 2018 Republican Candidate
2018 Democratic Candidate Trump (R) 2016
Clinton (D) 2016
Arizona
02 (Martha McSally/Open)
Lea Marquez Peterson
Ann Kirkpatrick Clinton +5
Arkansas
02 French Hill Clarke Tucker Trump +10
California
10
Jeff Denham
Josh Harder
Clinton +3
California
25 Steve Knight
Katie Hill
Clinton +6.7
California
39
(Ed Royce/Open) Young Kim
Gil Cisneros
Clinton +8.6
California
45
Mimi Walters
Katie Porter
Clinton +5.4
California
48 Dana Rohrabacher
Harley Rouda
Clinton +1.7
California
49 (Darrell Issa/Open)
Diane Harkey
Mike Levin
Clinton +7.5
California
50 Duncan Hunter Ammar Campa-Najjar Trump +15
Colorado
06 Mike Coffman Jason Crow
Clinton +8.9
Florida
15 (Dennis Ross/Open)
Ross Spano
Kristen Carlson Trump +10
Florida
16 Vern Buchanan David Shapiro Trump +10.7
Florida
26
Carlos Curbelo
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Clinton +16.3
Florida
27
(Ileana Ros-Lehtinen/Open)
Donna Shalala Clinton +19.6
Georgia
06
Karen Handel
Lucy McBath
Trump +1.5
Georgia
07 Rob Woodall Carolyn Bourdeaux Trump +6.3
Illinois
06
Peter Roskam
Sean Casten
Clinton +6.7
Illinois
12 Mike Bost Brendan Kelly Trump +14.8
Illinois 13 Rodney Davis Betsey Dirksen Londrigan Trump +5.5
Illinois
14
Randy Hultgren
Lauren Underwood Trump +3.9
Iowa
01 Rod Blum Abby Finkenauer Trump +3.5
Iowa
03 David Young Cindy Axne Trump +3.5
Kansas
02
(Lynn Jenkins/Open)
Paul Davis
Trump +18.4
Kansas
03
Kevin Yoder Sharice Davids Clinton +1.2
Kentucky
06 Andy Barr Amy McGrath Trump +15.3
Maine
02
Bruce Poliquin
Jared Golden Trump +10.3
Michigan
08 Mike Bishop Elissa Slotkin
Trump +6.7
Michigan
11
(Dave Trott/Open)
Haley Stevens
Trump +4.4
Minnesota
02 Jason Lewis Angie Craig Trump +1.2
Minnesota
03 Erik Paulsen Dean Phillips Clinton +9.4
Montana
At-Large Greg Gianforte Kathleen Williams Trump +20.6
Nebraska
02 Don Bacon Kara Eastman Trump +2.2
New Jersey
02 (Frank LoBiondo/Open)
Seth Grossman
Jeff Van Drew Trump +4.6
New Jersey
03 Tom MacArthur Andy Kim Trump +6.2
New Jersey
07 Leonard Lance Tom Malinowski Trump +1.1
New Jersey
11
(Rodney Frelinghuysen/Open)
Jay Webber
Mikie Sherrill Trump +0.9
New Mexico
02 (Steve Pearce/Open)
Yvette Herrell
Xochiltl Torres Small Trump +10.2
New York
11 Daniel Donovan Max Rose Trump +9.8
New York
19 John Faso Antonio Delgado Trump +6.8
New York
22 Claudia Tenney Anthony Brindisi Trump +15.5
New York
24 John Katko Dana Balter Clinton +3.6
New York
27 Chris Collins Nate McMurray Trump +24.5
North Carolina
02 George Holding Linda Coleman Trump +9.6
North Carolina
09 (Robert Pittenger/Open)
Mark Harris
Dan McCready Trump +11.6
North Carolina
13 Ted Budd Kathy Manning Trump +9.4
Ohio
01 Steve Chabot Aftab Pureval Trump +6.6
Ohio
12 Troy Balderson Danny O'Connor Trump +11.3
Pennsylvania
01 Brian Fitzpatrick Scott Wallace Clinton +2.0
Pennsylvania
05 (Pat Meehan/Vacant)
Pearl Kim
Mary Gay Scanlon Clinton +28.2
Pennsylvania
06 (Ryan Costello/Open)
Greg McCauley
Chrissy Houlahan Clinton +9.3
Pennsylvania
07 (Charlie Dent/Vacant)
Marty Nothstein
Susan Wild Clinton+1.1
Pennsylvania
10
Scott Perry George Scott Trump +8.9
Pennsylvania
16 Mike Kelly Ron DiNicola Trump +19.9
Pennsylvania 17 Keith Rothfus (previously in 12th CD) Conor Lamb 
(previously in 18th CD)
Trump +2.5
South Carolina
01 (Mark Sanford/Open)
Katie Arrington
Joe Cunningham Trump +13.1
Texas
07 John Culberson Lizzie Fletcher Clinton +1.4
Texas
23 Will Hurd Gina Ortiz Jones Clinton +3.4
Texas
32 Pete Sessions Colin Allred Clinton +1.9
Utah
04 Mia Love Ben McAdams Trump +6.7
Virginia
02 Scott Taylor Elaine Luria Trump +3.2
Virginia
05 (Tom Garrett/Open)
Denver Riggleman
Leslie Cockburn Trump +11.1
Virginia
07 Dave Brat Abigail Spanberger Trump +6.5
Virginia
10 Barbara Comstock Jennifer Wexton Clinton +9.9
Washington
03 Herrera Beutler Carolyn Long Trump +7.4
Washington
05 Cathy McMorris Rodgers Lisa Brown Trump +10.3
Washington
08
(David Reichert/Open)
Dino Rossi
Kim Schrier Clinton +3.0
Wisconsin
01 (Paul Ryan/Open)
Bryan Steil
Randy Bryce Trump +10.3
West Virginia
03 (Evan Jenkins/Open)
Carol Miller
Richard Ojeda Trump +49.2
Note: Chart reflects the new Pennsylvania Congressional District (per SCOTUS February ruling). The Republican incumbent who previously represented the majority of that geographic area is indicated.

Tomorrow: Vulnerable Democrats!

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Kimberly Scott
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DemList is a daily political column dedicated to informing and connecting you
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Sources: Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Ballotpedia, InsideElections/Gonzalez, DailyKos, Sabato's Crystal Ball

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