DemDaily: House Retirements, Races and Ratings

September 11, 2017

While the country continues to ride the daily rollercoaster of the Trump Administration, the Party Committees are focused on the 2018 battles for control of the House and Senate -- and helping individual candidates balance national events with their voters at home.

Democrats hold 194 seats to Republicans 241. It will take a net gain of 24 seats for Democrats to take control of the House in 2018.

Whether disatisfaction with Trump or Congress, the electorate has shifted, as have pundits' recent House seat ratings, giving Democrats increasing hope of taking back the US House of Representatives -- and recent Republican retirements bring them one step closer to their goal.

Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's FLA-27 seat considered likely Democratic Pick-Up

Retirements
In the last week three more Republicans anounced their retirements: Congressman Dave Lott (R/MI-11), where Trump wont by just 4.5% in 2016, Dave Reichert (R/WA-8), whose CD went 47.7% to 44.7% for Clinton, and Charlie Dent (R/PA-15) where voters went 51.8% to 44.2% for Trump.

That brings to eight the number of GOP retirements, including Congresspersons Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R/FLA-27), Lynn Jenkins (R/KS-2), Jim Bridenstein (R/OK-1), Jimmy Duncan Jr. (R/TN-2), and Sam Johnson (R/TX-3).

Bridenstein, Duncan and Johnson's seats are considered solid Republican, but the rest are considered in play, with Ros-Lehtinen's is favored at the outset to go to a Democrat.  On the average, since 1976, 22 Members have retired each election cycle.

Another six Republicans have announced departures to run for higher office, all - at this point - rated as strong GOP holds.

House Oversight Committee Chair Darryl Issa is on the Dems' Hit List

Mid-Term Advantage
Dems already have an historical advantage - in that the party outside the White House averaging a pick up of 28 seats in mid-term elections.

Special Elections
Although the five Congressional Special Elections (4R, 1D) so far this year did not flipped any seats, the narrow victory margins in the traditionally Republican seats are an indication of voter discontent with the White House.  Dems came within 7% points of winning in three states where Trump beat Clinton last November by 18+%.

Fundraising
Dems are also buoyed by their fundraising success. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee(DCCC) raised twice as much in July as the NRCC - the third month of outraising their Republican counterpart. It brings yearly totals to $66.2 million for the DCCC to the NRCC's $63.9 million.

Of all 435 Congressional seats up in 2018, Cook rates 175 as solid Democrat and 186 as solid Republican. 16 Democratic and 46 Republicans seats fall in the Likely/Lean category, and 3 Democratic and 9 Republican seats are rated as Toss Up or Worse.

For a look at the most vulnerable Republican seats, to follow are the Cook Political Report's September 2017 ratings.

Key: Likely Republican (22), Lean Republican (23) and Republican Toss Up (9), Lean Democrat (1)

Democrats' Top Republican Congressional District Targets

State
District
Incumbent R
 
State
District
Incumbent R
Arizona
02 Martha McSally   Minnesota
03
Erik Paulsen
California
10
Jeff Denham
 
Montana
00 Greg Gianforte
California
21
David Valadao
Nebraska
02
Don Bacon
California
25 Steve Knight
 
New Jersey 03 Tom MacArthur
California
39
Ed Royce
 
New Jersey
07
Leonard Lance
California
45
Mimi Walters
 
New Jersey
11
Rodney Frelinghuysen
California
48 Dana Rohrabacher
 
New Mexico
02
Steve Pearce (OPEN)
California 49 Darrell Issa  
New York
01
Lee Zeldin
Colorado 06 Mike Coffman  
New York
19
John Faso
Florida
18
Brian Mast
 
New York
22
Claudia Tenney
Florida
26
Carlos Curbelo
 
New York
24
John Katko
Florida
27
Illeana Ros-Lehtinen (OPEN)
 
North Carolina
02
George Holding
Georgia
06
Karen Handel
 
North Carolina
09
Robert Pittenger
Georgia
07 Rob Woodall
 
North Carolina
13
Ted Budd
Illinois
06
Peter Roskam
 
Ohio
01
Steve Chabot
Illinois 12 Mike Bost   Ohio
16
Jim Renacci (OPEN)
Illinois
13
Rodney Davis
  Pennsylvania
06
Ryan Costello
Illinois
14
Randy Hultgren
 
Pennsylvania
07
Pat Meehan
Iowa
01
Rod Blum
 
Pennsylvania
08
Brian Fitzpatrick
Iowa 03 David Young   Pennsylvania
15
Charlie Dent (OPEN)
Kansas
02
Lynn Jenkins (OPEN)
 
Pennsylvania
16
Lloyd Smucker
Kansas
03
Kevin Yoder   Texas
07
John Culberson
Maine
02
Bruce Poliquin
  Texas
23
Will Hurd
Michigan
07 Tim Walberg
 
Texas
32
Pete Sessions
Michigan 08 Mike Bishop   Virginia
02
Scott Taylor
Michigan
11
Dave Trott (OPEN)
  Virginia
05
Tom Garrett
Minnesota 02 Jason Lewis Virginia 10 Barbara Comstock
Washington 08 David Reichert (OPEN)
 Next Up:  The breakdown on Democratic House seats!

DemList will keep you informed!

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Sources: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia, Politico, The Hill, Detroit Press, Wiki

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