DemDaily: Round One
October 25, 2016
Early voting has begun in 27 states + DC and an anxious electorate is taking advantage of the opportunity in droves. Early voting usually takes place between 4 and 45 days prior to election day.
An estimated 3.3 million Americans have already cast their ballot, and at a larger percentage in blue.
While actual vote results are not reported until November 8th, analyses of the voter demographics and party registration of those have who already turned out via absentee, mail or in-person, provide us with a sampling of how the candidates at the top of the ticket are doing.
Early voters tend to favor Democrats and 2016 battleground states performing to the Dems favor so far include Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.
2012 Total Vote: Obama 41% v Romney 57%
2012 Early Vote: 66% of total electorate [15 largest counties only] 2016 Early Vote: Absentee, In-Person (began 10/24)
In the ususally safe red Republican state, record breaking numbers were reported the first day in Williamson, Bastrop, Harris, Denton, and Hays Counties, with a heavy turnout among registered Dems. The state of Texas hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976. Trump leads Clinton 44.2% to 39.6% among all registered voters.
2012 Total Vote: Obama 48% v Romney 50%
2012 Early Vote: 63% of total electorate (D:48%, R:32%)
2016 Early Vote: Absentee, In Person (began 10/20)
A New York Times poll shows Clinton with a 61-36% lead among NC early voters. The poll has Clinton up 7 points in NC among all voters, 46% to 39%.
Tighter early vote contests include Iowa and Ohio, where Democrats are outvoting Republicans but the overall early voter performance is down, and Georgia and Utah where the GOP is favored.
2012 Total Vote: Obama 52% v Romney 46%
2012 Early Vote: 44% of total electorate (D: 42% - R: 32%)
2016 Early Vote: Absentee, In Person (began 9/29)
The best news for Trump is in Iowa. So far, Democrats have outvoted Republicans 43-36%. That is down from 2012, however, when Democrats outpaced GOP voters by 53,719 at this point. Trump leads presidential polling in Iowa 41.7% to 38.0% over Clinton.
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