DemDaily: Special Election Update!

May 17, 2017

It appears that Democrat nominee Archie Parnell will be facing Republican Ralph Norman in South Carolina's 5th Congressional District (CD) Special Election June 20th, but not before Norman faces a recount in yesterday's run-off for the GOP nomination.

South Carolina 5th CD's Archie Parnell

The traditionally Republican district is one of 5 special elections in 2017, four of which were vacated by Members to join President Trump's cabinet.

Norman, a sitting State Representative, beat House Speaker Pro Tem Tommy Pope by 203 votes with 50.3% to 49.7%, but the less than 1% margin triggers an automatically recount by the state.

 

Republicans won the April 11th Kansas Special Election by 7%, but Ron Estes' (R) single digit victory over Democrat James Thompson is a far cry from Trump's 27% victory over Clinton in the District in November.

Democrats still hope to parlay the anti-Trump wave into potential victories in their quest to flip the 24 GOP seats needed to retake control of the House.

In next Thursday's, May 25th Montana Special Election, country musician Rob Quist (D) will face former Gubernatorial nominee Greg Gianforte (R). The district, which has been Republican for 20 years, voted Trump 57%-Clinton 36%. Quist's unexpected fundraising boon of $3.3 million has made this a contested race.

Rob Quist has narrowed Montana's special election to single digits

The June 6th California Special Election offers Dems one guaranteed win. State Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez and former Los Angeles City Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn were the top two vote-getters in the "jungle" primary, pitting the two Democrats against each other for the final contest to fill the 34th CD vacated by former Congressman (now California Attorney General) Xavier Becerra.

But all eyes are on the end-game -- the June 20th Georgia Special Election to fill HHS Secretary Tom Price's seat, where Democrat Jon Ossoff, a 31 year-old former Congressional aide, is in a dead-heat race with Republican and former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel.

 The 6th CD contest, now the most expensive House race in history with over $30 million spent in advertising, has also become a referendum on gaging the voter's political pulse.

 

With Trump's approval rating under 40%, and the excalating controversy surrounding the Russian connection investigation and his firing of FBI Director James Comey, the landscape is ripe for gains. It is up to the Democratics to turn them into victories.

Remaining 2017 Special Elections
Congressional Districts & Candidates
Congressional District
Incumbent Election Date Democratic Candidate Republican Candidates Presidential % in CD
Montana At Large seat Ryan Zinke, left to serve as Secretary of the Interior General: May 25 Rob Quist, country musician, former spokesman for Montana Food Bank, and fmr Montana Arts Council Greg Gianforte, former Montana Governor nominee Clinton 36%
Trump 57%
California 34th District Xavier Becerra, left to serve as California AttorneyGeneral General: June 6 State Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez, Frm Los Angeles city planning commissioner
Robert Lee Ahn
none (*top two vote-getters, in this case Dems, advance to general) Clinton 83%
Trump 11%
Georgia 6th District Tom Price, left to serve as Secretary of Health & Human Services General: June 20 Former Congressional Aide Jon Ossoff Former Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel Clinton 47%
Trump 48%
South Carolina 5th District Mick Mulvaney, left to serve as Director, Office of Management & Budget General: June 20 Goldman Sachs senior adviser Archie Parnell State Rep Ralph Norman (pending recount) Clinton 39%
Trump 57%
 
 
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Sources: WashingtonPost, Politico, Ballotpedia, FiveThirtyEight

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