DemDaily: State of the Senate: Polling Numbers

November 2, 2018

At four days away from Election Day, control of the US Senate will come down to a handful of races, and be the ultimate test of whether President Trump is an advantage or liability to his own party.

The Republican Party holds a 51 to 49 seat majority over the Democrats (including two independents) in the US Senate. Democrats will need to pick up a net gain of two seats to take the majority in 2018.

Image: Vox

35 of the 100 US Senate seats are up for election next Tuesday, with Democrats defending 26 seats to Republican's nine.

Democratic incumbents in "red" states, where Trump won in 2016, are most vulnerable. Those include Florida, Indiana, Montana, MissouriNorth Dakota and West VirginiaNew Jersey, traditionally a blue state, is now on the list.

For the GOP, its greatest challenge is defending the open seats in Arizona and Tennessee, as well as incumbent re-election battles in Nevada and Texas.

As always, the winners will depend on which party gets the vote out!

 2018 US Senate: Polling Updates
Four Days Out

Blue/Red=Held by Democrat/Republican. If Independent, grouped with aligned Party. MOE=Margin of Error

State
Poll
Democrat
Republican
Rating
Arizona
RCP Average (10/15-10/29) Kyrsten Sinema 47.5% Open(*Flake/Retiring)
Martha McSally 46.8%
Toss Up
California
Berkeley IGS (10/19-10/26, MOE:4)
*Diane Feinstein 45%
v. Kevin de Leon 36%
No Candidate
Safe D
Connecticut
Gravis (10/30-11/1, MOE:3.8)
*Chris Murphy 58%
Matthew Corey 35%
Safe D
Delaware
Univ of Delaware (9/26, MOE:3.7)
*Tom Carper 61%
Robert Arlett 24%
Safe D
Florida
St. Pete Polls (10/30-10/31, MOE:2)
*Bill Nelson 49%
Rick Scott 47% Toss Up
Hawaii
No Polling Available
*Mazine Hirona
Ron Curtis
Safe D
Indiana
NBC/Marist (10/24-10/28, MOE:5.5)
*Joe Donnelly 45%
Toss Up
Maine
Emerson (10/27-10/29, MOE:3.5)
*Angus King (Ind) 50%
Safe (I)
Maryland
Gonzales (10/1-10/6, MOE:3.5)
*Ben Cardin 49%
Tony Campbell 22%
Safe D
Massachusetts
Boston Globe/Suffolk (10/24-10/28, MOE:4.4)
*Elizabeth Warren 56%
Safe D
Michigan
Gravis (10/29-10/30, MOE:3.6)
*Debbie Stabenow 54%
John James 41%
Likely D
Minnesota (1)
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon (10/15-10/17, MOE:3.5)
*Amy Klobuchar 56%
Jeff Newberger 33%
Safe D
Minnesota (2)
Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon (10/15-10/17, MOE:3.5)
*Tina Smith 47%
Karin Housley 41% Lean D
Mississippi (1)
NBC/Marist (10/13-10/18, MOE:6.1) David Baria 32%
*Roger Wicker 60%
Safe R
Mississippi (2)
NBC/Marist (10/13-10/18, MOE:6.1) Mike Espy 29% *Cindy Hyde-Smith 38% Lean R
Missouri
Missouri Scout (10/24-10/25, MOE:2.6)
*Claire McCaskill 45%
Josh Hawley 49%
Toss Up
Montana
Gravis (10/24-10/26, MOE:3.5)
*Jon Tester 48%
Lean D
Nebraska
DFM Research (10/30, MOE:3.8)
Jane Raybould
*Deb Fischer
Safe R
Nevada
CNN (10/24-10/29, MOE:4.8) Jacky Rosen 48%
*Dean Heller 45%
Toss Up
New Jersey
Emerson (10/24-10/26, MOE:4)
*Bob Menendez 47%
Bob Hugin 42%
Lean D
New Mexico
KOB-TV (10/29, MOE:2.8)
*Martin Heinrich 52%
Mick Rich 37%
Safe D
New York
Quinnipiac (10/10-10/16, MOE:4.4)
*Kirstin Gillibrand 58%
Chele Chiavacci Farley 33%
Safe D
North Dakota
Trafalgar (10/23-10/24, MOE:2.1)
*Heidi Heitkamp 45%
Kevin Cramer 54% Lean R
Ohio
Gravis (10/29-10/30, MOE:3.5) *Sherrod Brown 46%
Jim Renacci 37%
Likely D
Pennsylvania
RCP Average (8.12-10/28)
*Bob Casey, Jr. 52%
Lou Barletta 36.5%
Safe D
Rhode Island
WPRI/Williams (10/20-10/24, MOE:4.8)
*Sheldon Whitehouse 55%
Robert Flanders 36%
Safe D
Tennessee
Emerson (10/28-10/30, MOE:4) Phil Bredesen 44% Open(*Corker/Retiring)
Marsha Blackburn 52%
Lean R
Texas
Emerson (10/28-10/30, MOE:37) Beto O'Rourke 47%
Ted Cruz 50%
Toss Up
Utah
Salt Lake Tribune (10/3-10/9, MOE:4) Jenny Wilson 23% Open(*Hatch/Retiring)
Mitt Romney 59%
Safe R
Vermont
Gravis (10/30-11/1, MOE:3.3)
*Bernie Sanders (Ind) 66%
Lawrence Zupan 30%
Safe (I)
Virginia
Univ of Mary Washington (9/4-9/9, MOE:5.8)
*Tim Kaine 52%
Corey Stewart 36% Safe D
Washington
Elway (10/4-10/9, MOE:5)
*Maria Cantwell 53%
Susan Hutchison 39%
Safe D
West Virginia
Emerson (10/28-10/31, MOE:3.2)
*Joe Manchin 47%
Patrick Morrisey 42% Lean D
Wisconsin
Emerson (10/29-10/31, MOE:4.1)
*Tammy Baldwin 53%
Leah Vukmir 43% Likely D
Wyoming
No Polling Available Gary Trauner
*John Barrasso
Safe R

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Kimberly Scott
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Sources: RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, 270ToWin

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