DemDaily: Dissecting Their Support
July 23, 2019
Now just one week away from the second Democratic primary debate, there is no shortage of polling and analyses of the standing of the presidential contenders.Today, the Morning Consult, which does a weekly survey of national and early state registered voters, released a look at who is supporting the candidates, broken down by demographics.
The interviews were collected July 15-21, 2019, from 17,285 interviews with registered voters who indicated they may vote in the Democratic primary. The margin of error +/- 2%.
The poll measured only the "top candidates," who, in their survey, stood at Joe Biden (33%), Bernie Sanders (18%), Elizabeth Warren (14%) and Kamala Harris (13%).
The Takeaways: Warren's supporters are 84% white, compared to nearly 7 in 10 of Sanders and Harris' supporters. * A majority of both Warren's and Harris' supporters have a college degree and are women, though a larger proportion of Warren's supporters are women. * Warren's supporters are nearly evenly split among age while Sanders is driven by younger voters and Harris by older ones.
|Below Age 45||28%||64%||41%||33%|
|Age 45 and Above||72%||36%||59%||67%|
|Less Than College Education||61%||66%||43%||49%|
The Big Picture
What are the target demographics for victory in the general election?
According to Pew Research, Nonwhites will account for one third of eligible voters, the largest share ever, driven by long-term increases among certain groups. For the first time Hispanics are expected to be the largest racial or ethnic minority group in the electorate, accounting for just over 13% of eligible voters, slightly more than black voters.
Seniors will also play an important part, as will younger voters.
In 2020 nearly a quarter, 23%, of the 2020 electorate will be age 65 or older, the highest such share since at least 1970. Comparatively, while Millennials (ages 24 to 39) will account for a slightly smaller share of the electorate, people ages 18 to 23, known as Generation Z, are projected to comprise 10% of eligible voters, up from just 4% in 2016.
Then there are women, who voted 54% for Clinton over 41% for Trump in 2016, and are expected to once again account for more than half of the electorate in 2020, and who also now comprise 50.2% of the college-educated labor force.
Regardless of the numbers, it will come down to getting out the vote, and which candidate will ultimately motivate each demographic to get to the polls.
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