DemDaily: House Races and Ratings: The List

September 6, 2018

It is that time.  With 60 days until the November midterm elections, these are the most targeted, or vulnerable, Republican seats in the US House of Representatives -- 63 in all.

Ratings are based on a review of major political rating reports and, ultimately, DemList's own analysis.

Democrats hold 193 seats to Republicans 236, with six vacanies in the US House. It will take a net gain of 23 seats for Democrats to take control of the House in 2018.

KeyLean Republican (23) and Republican Toss Up (30), Lean Democrat (8), Likely Democrat (2) In open seats, the outgoing incumbent is noted in parentheses.

Democrats' Top Republican Congressional District Targets
State
District
Republican Incumbent and 2018 Candidate
2018 Democratic CandidateTrump (R) 2016
Clinton (D) 2016
Arizona
02(Martha McSally/Open)
Lea Marquez Peterson
Ann KirkpatrickClinton +5
Arkansas
02French HillClarke TuckerTrump +10
California
10
Jeff Denham
Josh Harder
Clinton +3
California
25Steve Knight
Katie Hill
Clinton +6.7
California
39
(Ed Royce/Open) Young Kim
Gil Cisneros
Clinton +8.6
California
45
Mimi Walters
Katie Porter
Clinton +5.4
California
48Dana Rohrabacher
Harley Rouda
Clinton +1.7
California
49(Darrell Issa/Open)
Diane Harkey
Mike Levin
Clinton +7.5
Colorado06Mike CoffmanJason Crow
Clinton +8.9
Florida
15(Dennis Ross/Open)
Ross Spano
Kristen CarlsonTrump +10
Florida
16Vern BuchananDavid ShapiroTrump +10.7
Florida
18
Brian Mast
Lauren Baer
Trump +9.2
Florida
26
Carlos Curbelo
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Clinton +16.3
Florida
27
(Ileana Ros-Lehtinen/Open)
Donna ShalalaClinton +19.6
Georgia
06
Karen Handel
Lucy McBath
Trump +1.5
Illinois
06
Peter Roskam
Sean Casten
Clinton +6.7
Illinois
12Mike BostBrendan KellyTrump +14.8
Illinois13Rodney DavisBetsey Dirksen LondriganTrump +5.5
Illinois
14
Randy Hultgren
Lauren UnderwoodTrump +3.9
Iowa
01Rod BlumAbby FinkenauerTrump +3.5
Iowa
03David YoungCindy AxneTrump +3.5
Kansas
02
(Lynn Jenkins/Open)
Paul Davis
Trump +18.4
Kansas
03
Kevin YoderSharice DavidsClinton +1.2
Kentucky
06Andy BarrAmy McGrathTrump +15.3
Maine
02
Bruce Poliquin
Jared GoldenTrump +10.3
Michigan
08Mike BishopElissa Slotkin
Trump +6.7
Michigan
11
(Dave Trott/Open)
Haley Stevens
Trump +4.4
Minnesota02Jason LewisAngie CraigTrump +1.2
Minnesota
03Erik PaulsenDean PhillipsClinton +9.4
Montana
At-LargeGreg GianforteKathleen WilliamsTrump +20.6
Nebraska
02Don BaconKara EastmanTrump +2.2
New Jersey
02(Frank LoBiondo/Open)
Seth Grossman
Jeff Van DrewTrump +4.6
New Jersey
03Tom MacArthurAndy KimTrump +6.2
New Jersey
07Leonard LanceTom MalinowskiTrump +1.1
New Jersey
11
(Rodney Frelinghuysen/Open)
Jay Webber
Mikie SherrillTrump +0.9
New Mexico
02(Steve Pearce/Open)
Yvette Herrell
Xochiltl Torres SmallTrump +10.2
New York
19John FasoAntonio DelgadoTrump +6.8
New York
22Claudia TenneyAnthony BrindisiTrump +15.5
North Carolina
09(Robert Pittenger/Open)
Mark Harris
Dan McCreadyTrump +11.6
North Carolina
13Ted BuddKathy ManningTrump +9.4
Ohio
01Steve ChabotAftab PurevalTrump +6.6
Ohio
12Troy BaldersonDanny O'ConnorTrump +11.3
Pennsylvania
01Brian FitzpatrickScott WallaceClinton +2.0
Pennsylvania
05(Meehan/Vacant)
Pearl Kim
Mary Gay ScanlonClinton +28.2
Pennsylvania
06(Ryan Costello/Open)
Greg McCauley
Chrissy HoulahanClinton +9.3
Pennsylvania
07(Charlie Dent/) Marty NothsteinSusan WildClinton+1.1
Pennsylvania
10
Scott PerryGeorge ScottTrump +8.9
Pennsylvania
16Mike KellyRon DiNicolaTrump +19.9
Pennsylvania
17(Cartwright) Keith RothfusConor LambTrump +2.5
South Carolina
01(Open/Mark Sanford)
Katie Arrington
Joe CunninghamTrump +13.1
Texas
07John CulbersonLizzie FletcherClinton +1.4
Texas
23Will HurdGina Ortiz JonesClinton +3.4
Texas
32Pete SessionsColin AllredClinton +1.9
Utah
04Mia LoveBen McAdamsTrump +6.7
Virginia
02Scott TaylorElaine LuriaTrump +3.2
Virginia
05(Tom Garrett/Open)
Denver Riggleman
Leslie CockburnTrump +11.1
Virginia
07Dave BratAbigail SpanbergerTrump +6.5
Virginia
10Barbara ComstockJennifer WextonClinton +9.9
Washington
03Herrera BeutlerCarolyn LongTrump +7.4
Washington
05McMorris RodgersLisa BrownTrump +10.3
Washington
08
David Reichert (Open)
Dino Rossi
Kim SchrierClinton +3.0
Wisconsin
01(Paul Ryan/Open)
Bryan Steil
Randy BryceTrump +10.3
West Virginia
03(Evan Jenkins/Open)
Carol Miller
Richard OjedaTrump +49.2

Note: Pennsylvania Districts are listed according to the new Congressional District map, as determined by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in February, 2018. The Republican incumbent who previously represented the majority of that geographic area under the old District map is indicated, as is the incumbent or candidate who is running in the newly drawn seat. Also noted are the results of the 2016 election, as reconfigured under each new District map. FIgures vary according to source (PA figures are Daily Kos #s).

*In Pennsylania's new 17th District, Republican incumbent Keith Rothfus (previously in the 12th CD) and Democrat incumbent Conor Lamb (previously in the 18th) are pitted against each other.

DemList will keep you informed!

Support DemList!

DemList
Connecting you to The Party
Connecting you to Each Other

Kimberly Scott
Publisher

DemList is a daily political column dedicated to informing and connecting you
to the issues, politics and the players. SignUp

Follow DemList on Facebook and Twitter

Sources: Cook Political Report, Ballotpedia, InsideElections/Gonzalez, DailyKos, Sabato's Crystal Ball, DCCC

Related posts

DemDaily: The Confirmation Count

DemDaily: The Confirmation Count

With the confirmation yesterday of Housing & Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson and Energy Secretary Rick Perry, thirteen of the fifteen Cabinet or Executive Departments heads have now...

DemDaily: The Nuclear Nomination

DemDaily: The Nuclear Nomination

The battle for the ideological swing vote in the Supreme Court today began today, with the opening of the much-anticipated confirmation hearings for Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee...