DemDaily: House Ratings and Ratings: The Republicans
October 23, 2018
Two weeks out from the midterms, the surge in Republican enthusiasm following the Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination battle has tempered some projections on the Democratic takeover of the US House.
Our analysis, and the numbers, however, show otherwise.
Based on an October 14-17 NBC News/Wall Street Journalpoll, Democrats hold a 9-point lead over Republicans among likely voters.
Make no mistake, the blue wave is still coming.
DEMOCRATS' TOP REPUBLICAN CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT TARGETS
Ratings based on a review of CookPoliticalReport, FiveThirtyEight, Sabato'sCrystalBall & DemList's final call.
Key: Lean Republican (22) and Republican Toss Up (29), Lean Democrat (13), Likely Democrat (4). In open seats, the outgoing incumbent is noted in parentheses.
|
State/Rating
|
District
|
(Incumbent) and 2018 Republican Candidate
|
2018 Democratic Candidate | Trump (R) 2016 |
Clinton (D) 2016
|
|
Arizona
|
02 | (Martha McSally/Open) Lea Marquez Peterson |
Ann Kirkpatrick | Clinton +5 | |
|
Arkansas
|
02 | French Hill | Clarke Tucker | Trump +10 | |
|
California
|
10
|
Jeff Denham |
Josh Harder
|
Clinton +3
|
|
|
California
|
25 | Steve Knight |
Katie Hill
|
Clinton +6.7 | |
|
California
|
39
|
(Ed Royce/Open) Young Kim |
Gil Cisneros
|
Clinton +8.6
|
|
|
California
|
45
|
Mimi Walters |
Katie Porter
|
Clinton +5.4
|
|
|
California
|
48 | Dana Rohrabacher |
Harley Rouda
|
Clinton +1.7
|
|
|
California
|
49 | (Darrell Issa/Open) Diane Harkey |
Mike Levin |
Clinton +7.5
|
|
|
California
|
50 | Duncan Hunter | Ammar Campa-Najjar | Trump +15 | |
|
Colorado
|
06 | Mike Coffman | Jason Crow |
Clinton +8.9
|
|
|
Florida
|
15 | (Dennis Ross/Open) Ross Spano |
Kristen Carlson | Trump +10 | |
|
Florida
|
16 | Vern Buchanan | David Shapiro | Trump +10.7 | |
|
Florida
|
26
|
Carlos Curbelo
|
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
|
Clinton +16.3
|
|
|
Florida
|
27 |
(Ileana Ros-Lehtinen/Open)
|
Donna Shalala | Clinton +19.6 | |
|
Georgia
|
06
|
Karen Handel
|
Lucy McBath
|
Trump +1.5 | |
|
Georgia
|
07 | Rob Woodall | Carolyn Bourdeaux | Trump +6.3 | |
|
Illinois
|
06
|
Peter Roskam
|
Sean Casten
|
Clinton +6.7
|
|
|
Illinois
|
12 | Mike Bost | Brendan Kelly | Trump +14.8 | |
| Illinois | 13 | Rodney Davis | Betsey Dirksen Londrigan | Trump +5.5 | |
|
Illinois
|
14
|
Randy Hultgren
|
Lauren Underwood | Trump +3.9 | |
|
Iowa
|
01 | Rod Blum | Abby Finkenauer | Trump +3.5 | |
|
Iowa
|
03 | David Young | Cindy Axne | Trump +3.5 | |
|
Kansas
|
02
|
(Lynn Jenkins/Open)
|
Paul Davis
|
Trump +18.4 | |
|
Kansas
|
03
|
Kevin Yoder | Sharice Davids | Clinton +1.2 | |
|
Kentucky
|
06 | Andy Barr | Amy McGrath | Trump +15.3 | |
|
Maine
|
02
|
Bruce Poliquin
|
Jared Golden | Trump +10.3 | |
|
Michigan
|
08 | Mike Bishop | Elissa Slotkin |
Trump +6.7
|
|
|
Michigan
|
11 |
(Dave Trott/Open)
|
Haley Stevens |
Trump +4.4
|
|
|
Minnesota
|
02 | Jason Lewis | Angie Craig | Trump +1.2 | |
|
Minnesota
|
03 | Erik Paulsen | Dean Phillips | Clinton +9.4 | |
|
Montana
|
At-Large | Greg Gianforte | Kathleen Williams | Trump +20.6 | |
|
Nebraska
|
02 | Don Bacon | Kara Eastman | Trump +2.2 | |
|
New Jersey
|
02 | (Frank LoBiondo/Open) Seth Grossman |
Jeff Van Drew | Trump +4.6 | |
|
New Jersey
|
03 | Tom MacArthur | Andy Kim | Trump +6.2 | |
|
New Jersey
|
07 | Leonard Lance | Tom Malinowski | Trump +1.1 | |
|
New Jersey
|
11
|
(Rodney Frelinghuysen/Open) Jay Webber |
Mikie Sherrill | Trump +0.9 | |
|
New Mexico
|
02 | (Steve Pearce/Open) Yvette Herrell |
Xochiltl Torres Small | Trump +10.2 | |
|
New York
|
11 | Daniel Donovan | Max Rose | Trump +9.8 | |
|
New York
|
19 | John Faso | Antonio Delgado | Trump +6.8 | |
|
New York
|
22 | Claudia Tenney | Anthony Brindisi | Trump +15.5 | |
|
New York
|
24 | John Katko | Dana Balter | Clinton +3.6 | |
|
New York
|
27 | Chris Collins | Nate McMurray | Trump +24.5 | |
|
North Carolina
|
02 | George Holding | Linda Coleman | Trump +9.6 | |
|
North Carolina
|
09 | (Robert Pittenger/Open) Mark Harris |
Dan McCready | Trump +11.6 | |
|
North Carolina
|
13 | Ted Budd | Kathy Manning | Trump +9.4 | |
|
Ohio
|
01 | Steve Chabot | Aftab Pureval | Trump +6.6 | |
|
Ohio
|
12 | Troy Balderson | Danny O'Connor | Trump +11.3 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
01 | Brian Fitzpatrick | Scott Wallace | Clinton +2.0 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
05 | (Pat Meehan/Vacant) Pearl Kim |
Mary Gay Scanlon | Clinton +28.2 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
06 | (Ryan Costello/Open) Greg McCauley |
Chrissy Houlahan | Clinton +9.3 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
07 | (Charlie Dent/Vacant) Marty Nothstein |
Susan Wild | Clinton+1.1 | |
| Pennsylvania |
10
|
Scott Perry | George Scott | Trump +8.9 | |
|
Pennsylvania
|
16 | Mike Kelly | Ron DiNicola | Trump +19.9 | |
| Pennsylvania | 17 | Keith Rothfus (previously in 12th CD) | Conor Lamb (previously in 18th CD) |
Trump +2.5 | |
|
South Carolina
|
01 | (Mark Sanford/Open) Katie Arrington |
Joe Cunningham | Trump +13.1 | |
|
Texas
|
07 | John Culberson | Lizzie Fletcher | Clinton +1.4 | |
|
Texas
|
23 | Will Hurd | Gina Ortiz Jones | Clinton +3.4 | |
|
Texas
|
32 | Pete Sessions | Colin Allred | Clinton +1.9 | |
|
Utah
|
04 | Mia Love | Ben McAdams | Trump +6.7 | |
|
Virginia
|
02 | Scott Taylor | Elaine Luria | Trump +3.2 | |
|
Virginia
|
05 | (Tom Garrett/Open) Denver Riggleman |
Leslie Cockburn | Trump +11.1 | |
|
Virginia
|
07 | Dave Brat | Abigail Spanberger | Trump +6.5 | |
|
Virginia
|
10 | Barbara Comstock | Jennifer Wexton | Clinton +9.9 | |
|
Washington
|
03 | Herrera Beutler | Carolyn Long | Trump +7.4 | |
|
Washington
|
05 | Cathy McMorris Rodgers | Lisa Brown | Trump +10.3 | |
|
Washington
|
08
|
(David Reichert/Open) Dino Rossi |
Kim Schrier | Clinton +3.0 | |
|
Wisconsin
|
01 | (Paul Ryan/Open) Bryan Steil |
Randy Bryce | Trump +10.3 | |
|
West Virginia
|
03 | (Evan Jenkins/Open) Carol Miller |
Richard Ojeda | Trump +49.2 |
Note: Chart reflects the new Pennsylvania Congressional District (per SCOTUS February ruling). The Republican incumbent who previously represented the majority of that geographic area is indicated.
Tomorrow: Vulnerable Democrats!
DemList will keep you informed!
Support DemList!
DemList
Connecting you to The Party
Connecting you to Each Other
Kimberly Scott
Publisher
DemList is a daily political column dedicated to informing and connecting you
Sources: Cook Political Report, FiveThirtyEight, Ballotpedia, InsideElections/Gonzalez, DailyKos, Sabato's Crystal Ball
