DemDaily: Impeachment, Polling and the People

October 3, 2019

The long-awaited formal impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump was not delayed because of a lack of evidence or allegations. Instead, it was because of the capable leadership of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, whose resistance could be attributed, in part to public opinion.  

Despite a continuous stream of constitutional and criminal wrongdoings by the President that began with the day he took office, the voting public has had little appetite for the process. 

This is not to say that the public does not believe Trump is innocent, or that they approve of his job performance. 

During his tenure, Trump's approval rating has not risen above 50% and has been closer to the RealClearPolitics average of 43.2% as of today

A CNBC poll, conducted September 24-29, 2019, shows Trump's approval rating at the lowest of his presidency at 37%, with a disapproval rating of 53%.

The key shift, however, is in those who are now willing to consider advancing impeachment. 

At least seven polls released since Pelosi's September 24th announcement show a decided shift in the public's opinion on impeachment.

In a Quinnipiac University poll released on September 25th, only 37% of voters said that the president should be impeached and removed from office.

In a subsequent Quinnipiac poll released September 30th (conducted September 27-29), the divide has closed 20 points, with 47% for impeachment to 47% against.

Quinnipiac's data also found that a 56% majority believe Trump sees himself as above the law, while a 54% majority believe the president abuses the power of his office.

Most significantly, polling over the last week shows a shift in white women, and white college-educated voters - who helped propel Trump to office in 2016.

(Portland Press Herald)

Support is, not surprisingly, divided among party loyalists. According to a Politico/Morning Consult poll released yesterday, eight-in-10 Democrats support impeachment proceedings, while only 9% of all Republicans are supportive.

Independents, however, are warming up to impeachment, with 43% supporting to 39% in opposition. Most polling shows a shift of 6% to 10% among Independents.

The Politico/Morning Consult poll revealed even more promise: 62% of voters said Trump "could do something that would cause me to support impeaching him and removing him from office."

Whether by removal of Congress or by the people in November of 2020, the nation appears, at last, ready to address the fate of Donald Trump.

DemList will keep you informed.

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Kimberly Scott
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