DemDaily: The Senate’s Swing States

November 2, 2016

A week from today we will know who the next US President will be, as well as which party will have control of the US Senate and, ultimately, the next Supreme Court nominee.

If the rising Blue Wave of 2016 sweeps in the top of the ticket election day, Democrats could be looking at 2 to 7 gains in the Senate. It will take a net gain of 5 seats for the Dems to take control of the Upper Chamber, which currently seats 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 2 Independents (that caucus with the Democrats).

Of the 34 States with a US Senate seat up for election, 10 are considered "Safe or Likely Democrat," and 16 "Safe or Likely Republican," which puts 8 states in play.

Not surprisingly, all eight are in presidential battlegrounds states.

Current numbers favor Incumbent Senator Marco Rubio (R) in Florida, and an increasingly tight contest in Wisconsin still leans toward former US Senator and Democratic challenger, Russ Feingold.

However, six races -Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania -- are still considered statistic toss-ups which could push, or be-pushed by, the presidential tide.

Swing Senate Seats
State Democrat Republican Senate Polling Average
Electoral Votes
Presidential Polling Average
Florida Patrick Murphy Marco Rubio*
Rubio +4.4
29
Trump +1.0
Indiana Evan Bayh Todd Young
Bayh +2.3
11
Trump +9.3
Missouri Jason Kander Roy Blunt*
Blunt +0.6
10
Trump +11.3
New Hampshire Maggie Hassan
Kelly Ayotte*
Ayotte +1.8
4
Clinton +4.7
Nevada
Catherine Cortez Masto
Joe Heck
Heck +1.0
6
Trump +1.6
North Carolina
Deborah Ross Richard Burr*
Burr +1.6
15
Trump +0.7
Pennsylvania Katie McGinty Pat Toomey*
McGinty +4.8
20
Clinton +4.9
Wisconsin Russ Feingold Ron Johnson*
Feingold +6.8
10
Clinton +5.7
* Incumbent.  Source: RealClearPolitics. Polling averages are based on current reputable polls in each state.
Collectively these states represent a total of 105 electoral votes, or 39% of the 270 needed to secure the presidency.
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