DemDaily: The State of the Democratic Race

May 5, 2016

While the Republicans are grappling with rebuilding their fractured party and uniting around their controversial nominee, the Democratic primary contest continues.
The State of the Democratic Race
In contrast to the hybrid of winner-take-all and Congressional District allocation method employed by the republicans, democratic delegates are awarded proportionate to the results of state primaries and caucuses.
So in the case of Indiana, where Sanders won the popular vote 52.7% to 47.3%, he was awarded a proportionate 44 delegates to Clinton's 38. However, Hillary picked up 7 of Indiana's "superdelegates," bringing her total count for the state to 45 over Bernie's 44.
"Superdelegates," which are unique to the Democratic process, are distinguished party leaders and elected officials, including Members of Congress and Governors, who are free to vote for the candidate of their choosing.

While superdelegates may publicly announce or pledge their support for a candidate prior to the convention, they are not bound to vote that way at the convention.

Accordingly, superdelegates could potentially swing the results of the nomination in a close contest where one candidate did not receive the majority of votes during the primaries.

Based on state primary and pledged superdelegates, the count stands at:
The Count
DemocratsDelegatesSuper DelegatesTotal Delegates
To-Date
Total Needed to
 Win Nomination
Hillary Clinton1,7015222,2052,383
Bernie Sanders1,362391,401
Remaining Delegates933151
Source: Associated Press
So the question remains, with 13 Democratic primary states to go, is it still possible for Sanders to overcome Clinton, who - with the support of pledged superdelegates - is now just 178 delegates shy of clinching the nomination?
Can Bernie still win?
Based on the primary delegates alone, it is not mathematically possible for him to secure the nomination outright. However, given the fact that the 712 superdelegates are free to vote for whomever they which at the convention, it is still technically possible.
To do so, the two-term Senator from Vermont would have to win the war with Secretary Clinton on two fronts: 1) win a majority of the remaining 13 primaries and 2) persuade pledged HRC superdelegates to flip to his candidacy.
Is this likely? While the Senator does not have the odds in his favor, he has a dedicated following and more than enough funds to keep his campaign alive through the convention.
REMAINING PRIMARY ELECTION CALENDAR
MonthDayPrimary/ CaucusDemocratic Delegates
May
7SaturdayGuam Democratic Caucus12
West Virginia Primary37
17TuesdayKentucky Democratic Primary60
Oregon Primary
74
June
4SaturdayVirgin Islands Democratic Caucus12
5SundayPuerto Rico Democratic Caucus67
7TuesdayCalifornia Primary
548
Montana Primary27
New Jersey Primary142
New Mexico Primary43
North Dakota Democratic Caucus23
South Dakota Primary25
14TuesdayDistrict of Columbia Democratic Primary46
The daily shift in numbers will tell all. DemList will keep you informed!
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