DemDaily: Status of the Senate

November 6, 2020

While the country awaits the outcome of the presidential, possibly in the next 24 hours, the balance of power in the U.S. will not be determined for another two months.

Status of the Senate
Pre-Election: 53 Republicans v. 47 Democrats
(includes two Independents)
Current Count: 48 Republicans v. 48 Democrats
Democratic Gains (2): Arizona and Colorado
Arizona: Mark Kelly (D) 51.7% v. Martha McSally (R) 48.3%
Colorado: John Hickenlooper (D) 53.3%
v. Cory Gardner (R) 44.5%
Republican Gains (1): Alabama
Tommy Tuberville (R) 60.3% v. Doug Jones (D) 39.5%
Outstanding (4): Alaska, North Carolina, Georgia (2)

On November 3rd, Democrats were defending 12 seats compared to Republicans, who were defending 23. Republicans flipped one seat in Alabama and held onto vulnerable seats in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Montana, and South Carolina.

A victorious Mark Kelly with wife former Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, and daughters Claire and Claudia Kelly (AP)

Democrats defeated Republican incumbents in Arizona and Colorado, and successfully defended against a strong challenge in Michigan.

While Democratic dreams of taking control of the Senate were dashed election night, the chance of an evenly split upper chamber is still within reach, as the count comes down to four outstanding seats.

Although incumbent Republican Senators Dan Sullivan in Alaska, and Thom Tillis in North Carolina, appear to be headed toward reelection, the two Senate seats in Georgia are expected to go to a runoff January 5th.

In Georgia, candidates of both parties run in an open election and if no one candidate secures over 50% of the vote, then the top two candidates advance to a runoff election.

Democrats will need to win both Georgia seats to tie control of the US Senate at 50-50. When votes are tied in the Senate, the Vice President, who is also President of the Senate, casts the deciding vote.

Georgia Senator David Perdue (R), and Jon Ossoff (D) will go to a runoff

Outstanding Elections
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) 62.9% v. Al Gross (D) 31.8%
Count: Sullivan 108,488 v. Gross 54,755
With 56% reporting, incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan leads Democratic challenger Al Gross almost two to one. The race will not be called until absentee and early mail-in votes are counted after the November 13th date for accepting ballots postmarked by Election Day.

North Carolina: Thom Tillis (R) 48.7% v. Cal Cunningham (D) 46.9%
Count: Tillis 2,640,381 v. Cunningham 2,543,692
At 94% reporting, Tillis maintains a 97,000 vote lead. Election officials will continue to count mail-in ballots through November 12th.

Georgia: David Perdue (R) 49.8% v. Jon Ossoff (D) 47.8%
Count: Tillis 2,449,629 v. Ossoff 2,351,651
With 98% reporting, Perdue leads Ossoff by roughly 98,000 votes. Although the race has not yet been called for a runoff, outstanding absentee, provisional and overseas ballots expect to favor the Democrat.

Senator Kelly Loeffler (R) & Reverand Raphael Warnock (D) advance to a January 5th runoff in Georgia

Georgia Special: Raphael Warnock (D) 32.9%,
Kelly Loeffler (R) 26.0%, Doug Collins (R) 20.0%
Count: Warnock 1,603,421 v. Loeffler 1,267,089
v. Collins 975,693

Georgia is also among the six states still outstanding in the presidential race, with Joe Biden currently leading Donald Trump in the Peach State by approximately 1,600 votes at 49.4% to 49.4%. If Georgia and its 16 electoral votes go to Biden before the other states are called, it would bring the former Vice President to just one electoral vote away from victory.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) announced today that the narrow margin in the presidential race means the state will be conducting a statewide recount.

As of 4:00pm Friday, Joe Biden holds 253 electoral votes (50.5%) to Donald Trump's 213 (47.7%) in the race to win the White House.

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Kimberly Scott
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