DemDaily: Status of the States: The Electoral College Count

October 28, 2020

Six Days out.

Over 69.5 million Americans have cast their ballots early, already exceeding half the number of votes counted during the entire 2016 presidential election.

With an unprecedented number of states in play, the outcome of the presidential election is still undetermined, but the path to victory for Joe Biden appears to be expanding as the historically contentious campaign nears its end.

The number of Electoral College votes per state is  equal to the size of its congressional delegation, for a total of 538 "electors,"  or voters, among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. It takes 270 to win the White House.

Status of the States
In 2016, Trump won 30 states (and Maine's 2nd Congressional District) for a total of 306 electoral votes.

DemList's ratings. Map: 270ToWin Interactive

Based on our analysis of each state and top political ratings, Donald Trump now has just twenty states in the "Likely" or "Solidly" Safe category, for a total of 125 electoral votes.

Comparatively, Joe Biden is favored in 24 states, including six "leaning" his way, for a total of 290 electoral votes -- putting him 20 past the 270 to win the election.

Most significantly, the traditional Republican stronghold of Texas, and its 38 electoral votes, has moved to the "Toss Up" category, joining Florida (29), George (16), Iowa (6), North Carolina (16), Ohio (18) and Maine's 2nd CD (1).

Trump will need to win all, and peel away at least two of the leaning-Democratic battlegrounds states like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, to overcome Biden.

Competitive Senate races are a critical factor in at least six of the Toss-Up or Leaning states, which could influence the outcome at the top of the ticket.

Note: Maine and Nebraska differ from other states in that each awards two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one electoral vote to the winner in each congressional district.

A RealClearPolitics average of eight national polls conducted between October 21st-27th shows Biden leading Trump 51.1% to 43.6%.

While our forecast is positive, no vote can be taken for granted.
Go to DemList's 2020 Election Protection Connection to check the laws and voter resources in your state!

DemList will keep you informed.

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Kimberly Scott

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Sources: 270ToWin, Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, RealClearPolitics, Ballotpedia, New York Times

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